WHAT: Following an “abysmal economic performance and continued economic weakness,”  University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro characterizes the Rhode Island economy as teetering on the brink of recession. The Current Conditions Index sank to a value of 33 in April from a value of 42 in March, placing it very clearly in contraction territory. Among the 12 CCI indicators, only New Claims (for Unemployment Insurance), Manufacturing Wage, Government Employment, and Retail Sales showed improvement. Although Retail Sales improved 0.5%, Lardaro says it has been falling for some time, making it difficult to determine if the uptick is something that will continue. Lardaro noted those parts of the state economy related to the higher end of the income spectrum continue to do quite well, while this is increasingly less true for average to below-average income Rhode Islanders, and added he believes that the odds of the state entering into a recession are fairly high.

WHO: URI Professor of Economics Leonard Lardaro, creator and author of the Current Conditions Index.

WHEN: June 19, 2023

HOW: Use attached information, including summary and charts prepared by Lardaro for news reports. He is available for broadcast and print interviews. Lardaro will be blogging about the new labor data during the coming weeks. Additional information and historical data available online: http://www.llardaro.com/current.htm.

FOR INFORMATION: Leonard Lardaro, office, 401-874-4128, home, 401-783-9563.

Dawn Bergantino, URI Department of Communications and Marketing, 401-874-4147.

BACKGROUND: The Current Conditions Index, created by Lardaro, measures the strength of the present economic climate in Rhode Island by following the behavior of 12 indicators.