WHAT: Despite initial 2023 data appearing as though Rhode Island’s economy was headed into recession, revised labor market data paints a rosier picture, says University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro. Although cyclical momentum was mediocre with Current Conditions Index values barely in expansion territory at 58 for 7 out of 12 months, certain indicators continue to show strength into 2024. With a January 2024 CCI value of 58, Lardaro notes that Retail Sales, Private Service-Producing Employment, Government Employment, U.S. Consumer Sentiment, Total Manufacturing Hours, Manufacturing Wage and Labor Force participation all had strong showings. The creator of the Current Conditions Index also noted some areas of weakness, including Single-Use Permits, Benefits Exhaustion, New Claims for unemployment insurance and Employment Service Jobs. Despite these areas of weakness, Lardaro says the Rhode Island economy is better off overall than originally thought and concluded that the state had not experienced an actual or “statistical” recession. “Stuck in first gear is better than going in reverse,” he said.

HOW: Use attached information, including summary and charts prepared by Lardaro for news reports. He is available for broadcast and print interviews. Lardaro will be blogging about the new labor data during the coming weeks. Additional information and historical data available online: http://www.llardaro.com/current.htm.

WHEN: March 12, 2024

FOR INFORMATION: Leonard Lardaro, office, 401-874-4128, home, 401-783-9563.
Dawn Bergantino, URI Department of Communications and Marketing, 401-874-4147.

BACKGROUND: The Current Conditions Index, created by Lardaro, measures the strength of the present economic climate in Rhode Island by following the behavior of 12 indicators.